The Economist UK // A Pyrrhic victory

Published: Monday, September 27, 2010

The Economist UK: Seldom has an election victory tasted so bitterly of defeat. Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's leftist President, had defined the legislative elections held yesterday as a plebiscite on his rule, spoken of the need to "demolish" the opposition and said that nothing less than a two-thirds super-majority in the 165-seat National Assembly would do. But with six races still to be defined, the ruling United Socialist Party (PSUV) had won just 96 seats, with the opposition taking 63.

Worse still for the President, the opposition is claiming a majority of the popular vote. Although the national electoral authority (CNE) has not yet released a vote tally, the Venezuela Unity (MUD) coalition, to which 60 of the 63 opposition candidates elected belong, says the government lost by 52% to 48%. If so, this would be just the second time in 12 years that Mr Chavez has lost an election, following the defeat of his constitutional-reform referendum in 2007. The PSUV only retained its congressional majority because of gerrymandering and a drastic reform of the electoral law that eliminated proportional representation.

Both the President and his campaign chief, Aristobulo Isturiz, brushed aside suggestions of failure. Using Twitter, Mr Chavez called the result a "solid victory", saying it was "enough to continue deepening" his "revolutionary socialist" project. But the PSUV's vanishing act on election night told a different story: its campaign headquarters emptied out by mid-evening, preventing journalists from obtaining comments from its members. At the MUD's base of operations, in contrast, opposition leaders clustered around microphones as they awaited the results.

Because the government brought the elections forward, the new congress will not take office until January, giving the PSUV free rein to rule as it pleases for nearly three more months. Afterwards, however, the party's underwhelming electoral performance will limit Mr Chavez' freedom to govern. Without a 110-seat super-majority, he will need support from the opposition to win some votes, such as appointments to the Supreme Court and the CNE. And if the PSUV fails to reach 99 seats, the President will no longer be able to legislate by decree. To circumvent such requirements, Mr Chavez may have to bypass the legislature through his control of the supreme court, a heavy-handed tactic he has used in the past.

The result also establishes a clear outline for the 2012 presidential campaign. A poor result for the MUD would have unleashed a power struggle in its ranks and might well have led to its disintegration. Now, the coalition can focus on debating how it will choose a rival to Mr Chavez. The candidacy of Henrique Capriles, the Governor of the State of Miranda, has already been announced. "The President has been given notice," Enrique Mendoza, an opposition leader who won a seat in the next congress.

Perhaps most importantly, the vote shows that Venezuelan democracy has not been reduced to a mere facade. In 2005 the opposition boycotted legislative elections, a decision that made it far easier for the President to cement his hold on power.

Now that the government has accepted a disappointing electoral outcome, opposition leaders who argue that voting is a waste of time will be further marginalized.

After 11 years of Mr Chavez' revolution, Venezuela is politically split down the middle. Neither side will be able to "demolish" the other anytime soon.