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Tuesday, October 26, 2010

In Our Opinion...

PDVSA on Monday confirmed the sale of US 3 billion of new global 2017s. Considering the current price in the international markets is around 70, this renders an implied FX rate of USD/VEF of 6.15-6.25. This compares to the USD/VEF 5.3 rate that has been prevailing in the SITME market.
In our opinion, this might be the clearest signal yet from the Venezuelan Government that a devaluation of the Venezuelan Bolivar is imminent and that the SITME's days are numbered. Would the Chavez Administration allow PDVSA to participate by selling USD directly onto the SITME platform at an FX sufficiently high to potentially encourage some private supply of USD bonds into the system?

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